[OSGeo Africa] Africa Digest, Vol 74, Issue 6
Adi Eyal
adi at burgercom.co.za
Mon Mar 25 00:12:41 PDT 2013
Thanks Peter - I'll look into them.
Adi
On 25 March 2013 07:47, Peter Schmitz <PSchmitz at csir.co.za> wrote:
> Good morning,
>
> Two references you may want to use:
>
> Booysens, S (Editor) 2012: Local Elections in South Africa: Parties,
> People, Politics. Sun Press ISBN 978-0-9870096-5-4
> Schmitz, PMU 2012: Voting patterns for the 2004 and 2009 national and the
> 2006 and 2011 local elections. In Proceedings of the GISSA Ukubuzana 2012
> Conference ISBN 978-0-620-52913-6
>
> Hope it helps.
>
> Cheers
> Peter
>
>
>
> *************************************************
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> Principal Researcher: GIS and data logistics
> Sustainable Human Settlements and Informatics
> CSIR Built Environment
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> Today's Topics:
>
> 1. Re: Election maps (Peter Newmarch)
>
>
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> Message: 1
> Date: Sat, 23 Mar 2013 22:51:27 +0200
> From: Peter Newmarch <newmarch at land-surveyors.com>
> To: Adi Eyal <adi at burgercom.co.za>
> Cc: Africa local chapter discussions <africa at lists.osgeo.org>
> Subject: Re: [OSGeo Africa] Election maps
> Message-ID: <514E15CF.5010602 at land-surveyors.com>
> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="windows-1252"; Format="flowed"
>
> Adi,
>
> Perhaps one could aggregate the population data and overall vote on the
> RHS of each picture ?
>
> As a side issue, it would be interesting to see what the map would look
> like if the opposition where to combine votes.
>
> Great work.
>
> Peter
>
> Peter Newmarch
> Professional Land Surveyor
> 4Y GeoInformatics Pty Ltd
> Tel : +27 31 5642856
> Fax : +27 31 5643074
> Mobile : +27 82 5705859
> eMail : newmarch at land-surveyors.com
>
> On 23/03/2013 22:31, Adi Eyal wrote:
> > Hi Peter
> >
> > On 23 March 2013 21:42, Peter Newmarch <newmarch at land-surveyors.com
> > <mailto:newmarch at land-surveyors.com>> wrote:
> >
> > Adi,
> >
> > I believe this election data has been around for years. The
> > demarcation board lists all the ward data, it used to be that one
> > had to ask for it specially.
> >
> >
> > Actually I was really surprised at how good the data is. I knew about
> > the shape files at www.demarcation.gov.za
> > <http://www.demarcation.gov.za> (big up to them for those). The data
> > on www.elections.gov.za <http://www.elections.gov.za> blew me away -
> > every election in the past two decades, granularity to the level of
> > polling station. Really amazing stuff - the IEC really gets transparency.
> >
> >
> > Great work, Fantastic stuff.
> >
> >
> > Some comments - I don?t believe that your 10% criteria is a fair
> > reflection of the "safety" of that ward. I believe that a better
> > method would be to colour code the winning party, and write its
> > victory total (ie 55% of all votes) and its margin of victory in
> > percentage (by ward) - ie if the winning party got 55% and the
> > next party got 35%, then it won by 20 points.
> >
> >
> > Isn't that more or less what I'm doing? The wards are colour coded by
> > ANC, DA or Other (most parties don't really feature except COPE in the
> > Northern Cape and IFP in KZN so I don't think it's unfair to bundle
> > them together for the sake of simplicity). The "at risk" wards are
> > shaded differently to show that the difference between 1st and 2nd
> > place is less than 10%.
> >
> > So, for example if the DA got 54% and the ANC got 46% then the
> > difference is 8 points and I would label that ward as an "at risk" ward.
> >
> > Actually adding the % votes would be useful but I don't see how to do
> > it without cluttering the maps. Suggestions?
> >
> > The one thing that I do think is missing is population. If you look at
> > some of the municipalities, there are some massive wards and some
> > small ones. The small ones are usually urban and centred around a town
> > whereas the large ones are rural with relatively small populations.
> > The maps as deceptive as you might see a large are labelled with one
> > colour whereas the a tiny ward might have more impact when counting
> > towards municipal elections (hope that makes sense)
> >
> >
> > When a party wins by the 65% upwards range, then it could be
> > considered safe.
> >
> >
> > yep - in fact anything above 55% is considered safe as the points
> > difference can never be less than 10.
> >
> > Of course their may be better ways, but with a title aimed at 2016
> > I do think it should reflect percentage victories to portray to
> > people the possibilities in that data - how safe it is, perhaps
> > with a merger it could change, if people of one party dont vote
> > because of a viable alternative - who would win etc... - a whole
> > miriad of possibilities.
> >
> >
> > :) now you're getting seriously complex - in theory, a coalition could
> > destroy a "safe" ward but I don't think you could easily place that
> > information on a map (unless you have a suggestion)
> >
> > Thanks for the comments
> >
> > Adi
> >
> >
> > Regards
> >
> > Peter
> >
> > Peter Newmarch
> > Professional Land Surveyor
> > 4Y GeoInformatics Pty Ltd
> > Tel :+27 31 5642856 <tel:%2B27%2031%205642856>
> > Fax :+27 31 5643074 <tel:%2B27%2031%205643074>
> > Mobile :+27 82 5705859 <tel:%2B27%2082%205705859>
> > eMail :newmarch at land-surveyors.com <mailto:
> newmarch at land-surveyors.com>
> >
> > On 23/03/2013 21:23, Chris wrote:
> >> I wonder if any politicians are statisticians
> >> and
> >> IF any understand attributes and spatial statistics ? ( and
> forecasting )
> >>
> >> Could be a gold mine for someone with the necessary knowledge
> and skills
> >>
> >>
> >> CM
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >> On 23 Mar 2013 at 20:38, Adi Eyal wrote:
> >>
> >>> Thanks Tim
> >>
> >>> Yup - would you believe that the IEC publishes all their data
> >>> in gobsmacking detail? Have a look here:
> http://www.elections.org.za.
> >>> You'll find the results for all the elections that have taken
> place over
> >>> the past two decades or so, down to the voting station. I got the
> >>> shapefiles fromwww.demarcation.gov.za <
> http://www.demarcation.gov.za>.
> >>
> >>> Adi
> >>
> >>> On 23 March 2013 20:35, Tim Sutton<tim at linfiniti.com> <mailto:
> tim at linfiniti.com> wrote:
> >>>
> >>>> Hi Adi
> >>>>
> >>>> On Sat, Mar 23, 2013 at 6:03 PM, Adi Eyal<adi at burgercom.co.za>
> <mailto:adi at burgercom.co.za> wrote:
> >>>>> Hi All
> >>>>>
> >>>>> I've been fiddling around the election data from the last
> municipal
> >>>>> elections and I've put together a graphic showing which wards
> were
> >>>> contested
> >>>>> and which are strongholds. I defined contested as there being a
> less
> >>>>> than 10% difference in vote counts between the first and second
> place
> >>>>> winners.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> I'm by no means a cartographer and this is one of my first
> projects so
> >>>>> I
> >>>> was
> >>>>> hoping for comments about how one might improve the maps. I
> guess the
> >>>>> one problem is that even though you know that a ward is
> contested, you
> >>>>> don't know by how much. Also (and i'm not sure this is
> important) you
> >>>>> don't
> >>>> know
> >>>>> from the map what the individual wards are - only the
> municipality
> >>>>> they
> >>>> are
> >>>>> in. Finally, I don't know where most of these municipalities are
> >>>> situated so
> >>>>> perhaps so sort of contextual map showing them in relation to
> the rest
> >>>>> of the country might be useful. Of course all of these things are
> >>>>> possible
> >>>> but
> >>>>> might not be easy to achieve while still maintaining an
> uncluttered
> >>>> design.
> >>>>> Any advice would be appreciated. The small version of the image
> can be
> >>>> found
> >>>>> here:
> http://za.okfn.org/2013/03/23/battle-for-local-municipalities/.
> >>>> The
> >>>>> complete poster is also available as pdf linked to on the site.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> Hopefully this sort of question is not frowned upon in this
> forum (if
> >>>>> it helps, everything here was produced with open source tools
> :)).
> >>>>>
> >>>> Great project!
> >>>>
> >>>> Is the source data you used available somewhere publicly? If so
> can you
> >>>> provide a link to it?
> >>>>
> >>>> Regards
> >>>>
> >>>> Tim
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>>>> Thanks
> >>>>> Adi
> >>>>>
> >>>>> --
> >>>>> Adi Eyal
> >>>>> Data Specialist
> >>>>> phone:+27 78 014 2469 <tel:%2B27%2078%20014%202469>
> >>>>> skype: adieyalcas
> >>>>> linkedin:http://za.linkedin.com/pub/dir/Adi/Eyal
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>> _______________________________________________
> >>>>> Africa mailing list
> >>>>> Africa at lists.osgeo.org <mailto:Africa at lists.osgeo.org>
> >>>>> http://lists.osgeo.org/mailman/listinfo/africa
> >>>>>
> >>>> --
> >>>> Tim Sutton - QGIS Project Steering Committee Member (Release
> Manager)
> >>>> ============================================== Visit
> >>>> http://linfiniti.com to find out about:
> >>>> * QGIS programming services
> >>>> * GeoDjango web development
> >>>> * FOSS Consulting Services
> >>>> Skype: timlinux Irc: timlinux on #qgis atfreenode.net <
> http://freenode.net>
> >>>> ==============================================
> >>>> _______________________________________________
> >>>> Africa mailing list
> >>>> Africa at lists.osgeo.org <mailto:Africa at lists.osgeo.org>
> >>>> http://lists.osgeo.org/mailman/listinfo/africa
> >>>>
> >>> --
> >>> Adi Eyal
> >>> Data Specialist
> >>> phone:+27 78 014 2469 <tel:%2B27%2078%20014%202469>
> >>> skype: adieyalcas
> >>> linkedin:http://za.linkedin.com/pub/dir/Adi/Eyal
> >>>
> >> _______________________________________________
> >> Africa mailing list
> >> Africa at lists.osgeo.org <mailto:Africa at lists.osgeo.org>
> >> http://lists.osgeo.org/mailman/listinfo/africa
> >>
> >>
> >
> >
> > _______________________________________________
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> > http://lists.osgeo.org/mailman/listinfo/africa
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > --
> > Adi Eyal
> > Data Specialist
> > phone: +27 78 014 2469
> > skype: adieyalcas
> > linkedin: http://za.linkedin.com/pub/dir/Adi/Eyal
> >
>
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--
Adi Eyal
Data Specialist
phone: +27 78 014 2469
skype: adieyalcas
linkedin: http://za.linkedin.com/pub/dir/Adi/Eyal
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