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<DIV>Good morning,</DIV>
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<DIV>Two references you may want to use:</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Booysens, S (Editor) 2012: Local Elections in South Africa: Parties, People, Politics. Sun Press ISBN 978-0-9870096-5-4</DIV>
<DIV>Schmitz, PMU 2012: Voting patterns for the 2004 and 2009 national and the 2006 and 2011 local elections. In Proceedings of the GISSA Ukubuzana 2012 Conference ISBN 978-0-620-52913-6</DIV>
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<DIV>Hope it helps.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Cheers</DIV>
<DIV>Peter</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
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<DIV>*************************************************<BR>Dr Peter Schmitz MRSSAf</DIV>
<DIV>Principal Researcher: GIS and data logistics<BR>Sustainable Human Settlements and Informatics</DIV>
<DIV>CSIR Built Environment<BR><BR>Tel: +27 12 841 38 41<BR>Fax: + 27 12 841 30 37<BR>Mobile: +27 82 784 20 07<BR>GPS: Lat -25.748919 Long 28.277532</DIV>
<DIV><BR>PO Box 395, Pretoria 0001<BR>Gauteng, South Africa<BR>*************************************************</DIV></SPAN><BR><BR>>>> <africa-request@lists.osgeo.org> 24/03/2013 9:00 PM >>><BR>Send Africa mailing list submissions to<BR> africa@lists.osgeo.org<BR><BR>To subscribe or unsubscribe via the World Wide Web, visit<BR> <A href="http://lists.osgeo.org/mailman/listinfo/africa">http://lists.osgeo.org/mailman/listinfo/africa</A><BR>or, via email, send a message with subject or body 'help' to<BR> africa-request@lists.osgeo.org<BR><BR>You can reach the person managing the list at<BR> africa-owner@lists.osgeo.org<BR><BR>When replying, please edit your Subject line so it is more specific<BR>than "Re: Contents of Africa digest..."<BR><BR><BR>Today's Topics:<BR><BR> 1. Re: Election maps (Peter Newmarch)<BR><BR><BR>----------------------------------------------------------------------<BR><BR>Message: 1<BR>Date: Sat, 23 Mar 2013 22:51:27 +0200<BR>From: Peter Newmarch <newmarch@land-surveyors.com><BR>To: Adi Eyal <adi@burgercom.co.za><BR>Cc: Africa local chapter discussions <africa@lists.osgeo.org><BR>Subject: Re: [OSGeo Africa] Election maps<BR>Message-ID: <514E15CF.5010602@land-surveyors.com><BR>Content-Type: text/plain; charset="windows-1252"; Format="flowed"<BR><BR>Adi,<BR><BR>Perhaps one could aggregate the population data and overall vote on the <BR>RHS of each picture ?<BR><BR>As a side issue, it would be interesting to see what the map would look <BR>like if the opposition where to combine votes.<BR><BR>Great work.<BR><BR>Peter<BR><BR>Peter Newmarch<BR>Professional Land Surveyor<BR>4Y GeoInformatics Pty Ltd<BR>Tel : +27 31 5642856<BR>Fax : +27 31 5643074<BR>Mobile : +27 82 5705859<BR>eMail : newmarch@land-surveyors.com<BR><BR>On 23/03/2013 22:31, Adi Eyal wrote:<BR>> Hi Peter<BR>><BR>> On 23 March 2013 21:42, Peter Newmarch <newmarch@land-surveyors.com <BR>> <mailto:newmarch@land-surveyors.com>> wrote:<BR>><BR>> Adi,<BR>><BR>> I believe this election data has been around for years. The<BR>> demarcation board lists all the ward data, it used to be that one<BR>> had to ask for it specially.<BR>><BR>><BR>> Actually I was really surprised at how good the data is. I knew about <BR>> the shape files at www.demarcation.gov.za <BR>> <<A href="http://www.demarcation.gov.za">http://www.demarcation.gov.za</A>> (big up to them for those). The data <BR>> on www.elections.gov.za <<A href="http://www.elections.gov.za">http://www.elections.gov.za</A>> blew me away - <BR>> every election in the past two decades, granularity to the level of <BR>> polling station. Really amazing stuff - the IEC really gets transparency.<BR>><BR>><BR>> Great work, Fantastic stuff.<BR>><BR>><BR>> Some comments - I don?t believe that your 10% criteria is a fair<BR>> reflection of the "safety" of that ward. I believe that a better<BR>> method would be to colour code the winning party, and write its<BR>> victory total (ie 55% of all votes) and its margin of victory in<BR>> percentage (by ward) - ie if the winning party got 55% and the<BR>> next party got 35%, then it won by 20 points.<BR>><BR>><BR>> Isn't that more or less what I'm doing? The wards are colour coded by <BR>> ANC, DA or Other (most parties don't really feature except COPE in the <BR>> Northern Cape and IFP in KZN so I don't think it's unfair to bundle <BR>> them together for the sake of simplicity). The "at risk" wards are <BR>> shaded differently to show that the difference between 1st and 2nd <BR>> place is less than 10%.<BR>><BR>> So, for example if the DA got 54% and the ANC got 46% then the <BR>> difference is 8 points and I would label that ward as an "at risk" ward.<BR>><BR>> Actually adding the % votes would be useful but I don't see how to do <BR>> it without cluttering the maps. Suggestions?<BR>><BR>> The one thing that I do think is missing is population. If you look at <BR>> some of the municipalities, there are some massive wards and some <BR>> small ones. The small ones are usually urban and centred around a town <BR>> whereas the large ones are rural with relatively small populations. <BR>> The maps as deceptive as you might see a large are labelled with one <BR>> colour whereas the a tiny ward might have more impact when counting <BR>> towards municipal elections (hope that makes sense)<BR>><BR>><BR>> When a party wins by the 65% upwards range, then it could be<BR>> considered safe.<BR>><BR>><BR>> yep - in fact anything above 55% is considered safe as the points <BR>> difference can never be less than 10.<BR>><BR>> Of course their may be better ways, but with a title aimed at 2016<BR>> I do think it should reflect percentage victories to portray to<BR>> people the possibilities in that data - how safe it is, perhaps<BR>> with a merger it could change, if people of one party dont vote<BR>> because of a viable alternative - who would win etc... - a whole<BR>> miriad of possibilities.<BR>><BR>><BR>> :) now you're getting seriously complex - in theory, a coalition could <BR>> destroy a "safe" ward but I don't think you could easily place that <BR>> information on a map (unless you have a suggestion)<BR>><BR>> Thanks for the comments<BR>><BR>> Adi<BR>><BR>><BR>> Regards<BR>><BR>> Peter<BR>><BR>> Peter Newmarch<BR>> Professional Land Surveyor<BR>> 4Y GeoInformatics Pty Ltd<BR>> Tel :+27 31 5642856 <tel:%2B27%2031%205642856><BR>> Fax :+27 31 5643074 <tel:%2B27%2031%205643074><BR>> Mobile :+27 82 5705859 <tel:%2B27%2082%205705859><BR>> eMail :newmarch@land-surveyors.com <mailto:newmarch@land-surveyors.com> <BR>><BR>> On 23/03/2013 21:23, Chris wrote:<BR>>> I wonder if any politicians are statisticians<BR>>> and<BR>>> IF any understand attributes and spatial statistics ? ( and forecasting )<BR>>><BR>>> Could be a gold mine for someone with the necessary knowledge and skills<BR>>><BR>>><BR>>> CM<BR>>><BR>>><BR>>><BR>>> On 23 Mar 2013 at 20:38, Adi Eyal wrote:<BR>>><BR>>>> Thanks Tim<BR>>> <BR>>>> Yup - would you believe that the IEC publishes all their data<BR>>>> in gobsmacking detail? Have a look here:http://www.elections.org.za.<BR>>>> You'll find the results for all the elections that have taken place over<BR>>>> the past two decades or so, down to the voting station. I got the<BR>>>> shapefiles fromwww.demarcation.gov.za <<A href="http://www.demarcation.gov.za">http://www.demarcation.gov.za</A>>.<BR>>> <BR>>>> Adi<BR>>> <BR>>>> On 23 March 2013 20:35, Tim Sutton<tim@linfiniti.com> <mailto:tim@linfiniti.com> wrote:<BR>>>><BR>>>>> Hi Adi<BR>>>>><BR>>>>> On Sat, Mar 23, 2013 at 6:03 PM, Adi Eyal<adi@burgercom.co.za> <mailto:adi@burgercom.co.za> wrote:<BR>>>>>> Hi All<BR>>>>>><BR>>>>>> I've been fiddling around the election data from the last municipal<BR>>>>>> elections and I've put together a graphic showing which wards were<BR>>>>> contested<BR>>>>>> and which are strongholds. I defined contested as there being a less<BR>>>>>> than 10% difference in vote counts between the first and second place<BR>>>>>> winners.<BR>>>>>><BR>>>>>> I'm by no means a cartographer and this is one of my first projects so<BR>>>>>> I<BR>>>>> was<BR>>>>>> hoping for comments about how one might improve the maps. I guess the<BR>>>>>> one problem is that even though you know that a ward is contested, you<BR>>>>>> don't know by how much. Also (and i'm not sure this is important) you<BR>>>>>> don't<BR>>>>> know<BR>>>>>> from the map what the individual wards are - only the municipality<BR>>>>>> they<BR>>>>> are<BR>>>>>> in. Finally, I don't know where most of these municipalities are<BR>>>>> situated so<BR>>>>>> perhaps so sort of contextual map showing them in relation to the rest<BR>>>>>> of the country might be useful. Of course all of these things are<BR>>>>>> possible<BR>>>>> but<BR>>>>>> might not be easy to achieve while still maintaining an uncluttered<BR>>>>> design.<BR>>>>>> Any advice would be appreciated. The small version of the image can be<BR>>>>> found<BR>>>>>> here:http://za.okfn.org/2013/03/23/battle-for-local-municipalities/.<BR>>>>> The<BR>>>>>> complete poster is also available as pdf linked to on the site.<BR>>>>>><BR>>>>>> Hopefully this sort of question is not frowned upon in this forum (if<BR>>>>>> it helps, everything here was produced with open source tools :)).<BR>>>>>><BR>>>>> Great project!<BR>>>>><BR>>>>> Is the source data you used available somewhere publicly? If so can you<BR>>>>> provide a link to it?<BR>>>>><BR>>>>> Regards<BR>>>>><BR>>>>> Tim<BR>>>>><BR>>>>><BR>>>>>> Thanks<BR>>>>>> Adi<BR>>>>>><BR>>>>>> --<BR>>>>>> Adi Eyal<BR>>>>>> Data Specialist<BR>>>>>> phone:+27 78 014 2469 <tel:%2B27%2078%20014%202469><BR>>>>>> skype: adieyalcas<BR>>>>>> linkedin:http://za.linkedin.com/pub/dir/Adi/Eyal<BR>>>>>><BR>>>>>><BR>>>>>> _______________________________________________<BR>>>>>> Africa mailing list<BR>>>>>> Africa@lists.osgeo.org <mailto:Africa@lists.osgeo.org><BR>>>>>> <A href="http://lists.osgeo.org/mailman/listinfo/africa">http://lists.osgeo.org/mailman/listinfo/africa</A><BR>>>>>><BR>>>>> --<BR>>>>> Tim Sutton - QGIS Project Steering Committee Member (Release Manager)<BR>>>>> ============================================== Visit<BR>>>>> <A href="http://linfiniti.com">http://linfiniti.com</A> to find out about:<BR>>>>> * QGIS programming services<BR>>>>> * GeoDjango web development<BR>>>>> * FOSS Consulting Services<BR>>>>> Skype: timlinux Irc: timlinux on #qgis atfreenode.net <<A href="http://freenode.net">http://freenode.net</A>><BR>>>>> ==============================================<BR>>>>> _______________________________________________<BR>>>>> Africa mailing list<BR>>>>> Africa@lists.osgeo.org <mailto:Africa@lists.osgeo.org><BR>>>>> <A href="http://lists.osgeo.org/mailman/listinfo/africa">http://lists.osgeo.org/mailman/listinfo/africa</A><BR>>>>><BR>>>> -- <BR>>>> Adi Eyal<BR>>>> Data Specialist<BR>>>> phone:+27 78 014 2469 <tel:%2B27%2078%20014%202469><BR>>>> skype: adieyalcas<BR>>>> linkedin:http://za.linkedin.com/pub/dir/Adi/Eyal<BR>>>><BR>>> _______________________________________________<BR>>> Africa mailing list<BR>>> Africa@lists.osgeo.org <mailto:Africa@lists.osgeo.org><BR>>> <A href="http://lists.osgeo.org/mailman/listinfo/africa">http://lists.osgeo.org/mailman/listinfo/africa</A><BR>>><BR>>><BR>><BR>><BR>> _______________________________________________<BR>> Africa mailing list<BR>> Africa@lists.osgeo.org <mailto:Africa@lists.osgeo.org><BR>> <A href="http://lists.osgeo.org/mailman/listinfo/africa">http://lists.osgeo.org/mailman/listinfo/africa</A><BR>><BR>><BR>><BR>><BR>> -- <BR>> Adi Eyal<BR>> Data Specialist<BR>> phone: +27 78 014 2469<BR>> skype: adieyalcas<BR>> linkedin: <A href="http://za.linkedin.com/pub/dir/Adi/Eyal">http://za.linkedin.com/pub/dir/Adi/Eyal</A><BR>><BR><BR>-------------- next part --------------<BR>An HTML attachment was scrubbed...<BR>URL: <<A href="http://lists.osgeo.org/pipermail/africa/attachments/20130323/1cc171b7/attachment-0001.html">http://lists.osgeo.org/pipermail/africa/attachments/20130323/1cc171b7/attachment-0001.html</A>><BR><BR>------------------------------<BR><BR>_______________________________________________<BR>Africa mailing list<BR>Africa@lists.osgeo.org<BR><A href="http://lists.osgeo.org/mailman/listinfo/africa">http://lists.osgeo.org/mailman/listinfo/africa</A><BR><BR><BR>End of Africa Digest, Vol 74, Issue 6<BR>*************************************<BR><BR>-- <BR>This message is subject to the CSIR's copyright terms and conditions, e-mail legal notice, and implemented Open Document Format (ODF) standard. <BR>The full disclaimer details can be found at <A href="http://www.csir.co.za/disclaimer.html.">http://www.csir.co.za/disclaimer.html.</A><BR><BR>This message has been scanned for viruses and dangerous content by MailScanner, <BR>and is believed to be clean.<BR><BR>Please consider the environment before printing this email.<BR><BR></DIV><font face="Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,Trebuchet MS" size="1">
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