<html><head></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space; ">The GISSA Ukubuzana 2012 conference proceedings are available at <a href="http://www.gissa.org.za/activities/conferences/gissa-ukubuzana-2012">http://www.gissa.org.za/activities/conferences/gissa-ukubuzana-2012</a><br><div>
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margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; font: normal normal normal 14px/normal Times; "><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; font: normal normal normal 10px/normal Arial; "><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; font: normal normal normal 12px/normal Helvetica; ">--</div><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; font: normal normal normal 12px/normal Helvetica; ">Serena Coetzee</div><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; font: normal normal normal 12px/normal Helvetica; min-height: 14px; "><br></div><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; font: normal normal normal 12px/normal Helvetica; ">Geography Building 3-5</div><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; font: normal normal normal 12px/normal Helvetica; ">Centre for Geoinformation Science, Department Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield, 0028, South Africa</div><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; font: normal normal normal 12px/normal Helvetica; color: rgb(52, 0, 238); "><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); ">email:<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="mailto:serena.coetzee@up.ac.za"><span style="text-decoration: underline; ">serena.coetzee@up.ac.za</span></a><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Web:<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://www.up.ac.za/cgis"><span style="text-decoration: underline; ">www.up.ac.za/cgis</span></a> </span></div><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; font: normal normal normal 12px/normal Helvetica; ">Mobile: +27 82 464 4294 · Tel: +27 12 420 3823 · Fax: +27 12 420 6385</div></div></div></div></div></div></span></div></span></div></span></div></span></div></span></div></span></div></span></span>
</div>
<br><div><div>On 25 Mar 2013, at 09:12 , Adi Eyal wrote:</div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline">Thanks Peter - I'll look into them.<div><br></div><div>Adi<br><br><div class="gmail_quote">On 25 March 2013 07:47, Peter Schmitz <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:PSchmitz@csir.co.za" target="_blank">PSchmitz@csir.co.za</a>></span> wrote:<br>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div style="MARGIN:4px 4px 1px;FONT:10pt Tahoma">
<div>Good morning,</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Two references you may want to use:</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Booysens, S (Editor) 2012: Local Elections in South Africa: Parties, People, Politics. Sun Press ISBN 978-0-9870096-5-4</div>
<div>Schmitz, PMU 2012: Voting patterns for the 2004 and 2009 national and the 2006 and 2011 local elections. In Proceedings of the GISSA Ukubuzana 2012 Conference ISBN 978-0-620-52913-6</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Hope it helps.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Cheers</div>
<div>Peter</div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div><span style="FONT-WEIGHT:normal;FONT-SIZE:10pt">
<div><br></div>
<div>*************************************************<br>Dr Peter Schmitz MRSSAf</div>
<div>Principal Researcher: GIS and data logistics<br>Sustainable Human Settlements and Informatics</div>
<div>CSIR Built Environment<br><br>Tel: <a href="tel:%2B27%2012%20841%2038%2041" value="+27128413841" target="_blank">+27 12 841 38 41</a><br>Fax: <a href="tel:%2B%2027%2012%20841%2030%2037" value="+27128413037" target="_blank">+ 27 12 841 30 37</a><br>
Mobile: <a href="tel:%2B27%2082%20784%2020%2007" value="+27827842007" target="_blank">+27 82 784 20 07</a><br>GPS: Lat -25.748919 Long 28.277532</div>
<div><br>PO Box 395, Pretoria 0001<br>Gauteng, South Africa<br>*************************************************</div></span><br><br>>>> <<a href="mailto:africa-request@lists.osgeo.org" target="_blank">africa-request@lists.osgeo.org</a>> 24/03/2013 9:00 PM >>><br>
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<br><br>Today's Topics:<br><br> 1. Re: Election maps (Peter Newmarch)<br><br><br>----------------------------------------------------------------------<br><br>Message: 1<br>Date: Sat, 23 Mar 2013 22:51:27 +0200<br>
From: Peter Newmarch <<a href="mailto:newmarch@land-surveyors.com" target="_blank">newmarch@land-surveyors.com</a>><br>
To: Adi Eyal <<a href="mailto:adi@burgercom.co.za" target="_blank">adi@burgercom.co.za</a>><br>Cc: Africa local chapter discussions <<a href="mailto:africa@lists.osgeo.org" target="_blank">africa@lists.osgeo.org</a>><br>
Subject: Re: [OSGeo Africa] Election maps<br>Message-ID: <<a href="mailto:514E15CF.5010602@land-surveyors.com" target="_blank">514E15CF.5010602@land-surveyors.com</a>><br>Content-Type: text/plain; charset="windows-1252"; Format="flowed"<br>
<br>Adi,<br><br>Perhaps one could aggregate the population data and overall vote on the <br>RHS of each picture ?<br><br>As a side issue, it would be interesting to see what the map would look <br>like if the opposition where to combine votes.<br>
<br>Great work.<br><br>Peter<br><br>Peter Newmarch<br>Professional Land Surveyor<br>4Y GeoInformatics Pty Ltd<br>Tel : <a href="tel:%2B27%2031%205642856" value="+27315642856" target="_blank">+27 31 5642856</a><br>Fax : <a href="tel:%2B27%2031%205643074" value="+27315643074" target="_blank">+27 31 5643074</a><br>
Mobile : <a href="tel:%2B27%2082%205705859" value="+27825705859" target="_blank">+27 82 5705859</a><br>eMail : <a href="mailto:newmarch@land-surveyors.com" target="_blank">newmarch@land-surveyors.com</a><br><br>On 23/03/2013 22:31, Adi Eyal wrote:<br>
> Hi Peter<br>><br>> On 23 March 2013 21:42, Peter Newmarch <<a href="mailto:newmarch@land-surveyors.com" target="_blank">newmarch@land-surveyors.com</a> <br>> <mailto:<a href="mailto:newmarch@land-surveyors.com" target="_blank">newmarch@land-surveyors.com</a>>> wrote:<br>
><br>> Adi,<br>><br>> I believe this election data has been around for years. The<br>> demarcation board lists all the ward data, it used to be that one<br>> had to ask for it specially.<br>
><br>><br>> Actually I was really surprised at how good the data is. I knew about <br>> the shape files at <a href="http://www.demarcation.gov.za/" target="_blank">www.demarcation.gov.za</a> <br>> <<a href="http://www.demarcation.gov.za/" target="_blank">http://www.demarcation.gov.za</a>> (big up to them for those). The data <br>
> on <a href="http://www.elections.gov.za/" target="_blank">www.elections.gov.za</a> <<a href="http://www.elections.gov.za/" target="_blank">http://www.elections.gov.za</a>> blew me away - <br>> every election in the past two decades, granularity to the level of <br>
> polling station. Really amazing stuff - the IEC really gets transparency.<br>><br>><br>> Great work, Fantastic stuff.<br>><br>><br>> Some comments - I don?t believe that your 10% criteria is a fair<br>
> reflection of the "safety" of that ward. I believe that a better<br>> method would be to colour code the winning party, and write its<br>> victory total (ie 55% of all votes) and its margin of victory in<br>
> percentage (by ward) - ie if the winning party got 55% and the<br>> next party got 35%, then it won by 20 points.<br>><br>><br>> Isn't that more or less what I'm doing? The wards are colour coded by <br>
> ANC, DA or Other (most parties don't really feature except COPE in the <br>> Northern Cape and IFP in KZN so I don't think it's unfair to bundle <br>> them together for the sake of simplicity). The "at risk" wards are <br>
> shaded differently to show that the difference between 1st and 2nd <br>> place is less than 10%.<br>><br>> So, for example if the DA got 54% and the ANC got 46% then the <br>> difference is 8 points and I would label that ward as an "at risk" ward.<br>
><br>> Actually adding the % votes would be useful but I don't see how to do <br>> it without cluttering the maps. Suggestions?<br>><br>> The one thing that I do think is missing is population. If you look at <br>
> some of the municipalities, there are some massive wards and some <br>> small ones. The small ones are usually urban and centred around a town <br>> whereas the large ones are rural with relatively small populations. <br>
> The maps as deceptive as you might see a large are labelled with one <br>> colour whereas the a tiny ward might have more impact when counting <br>> towards municipal elections (hope that makes sense)<br>><br>
><br>> When a party wins by the 65% upwards range, then it could be<br>> considered safe.<br>><br>><br>> yep - in fact anything above 55% is considered safe as the points <br>> difference can never be less than 10.<br>
><br>> Of course their may be better ways, but with a title aimed at 2016<br>> I do think it should reflect percentage victories to portray to<br>> people the possibilities in that data - how safe it is, perhaps<br>
> with a merger it could change, if people of one party dont vote<br>> because of a viable alternative - who would win etc... - a whole<br>> miriad of possibilities.<br>><br>><br>> :) now you're getting seriously complex - in theory, a coalition could <br>
> destroy a "safe" ward but I don't think you could easily place that <br>> information on a map (unless you have a suggestion)<br>><br>> Thanks for the comments<br>><br>> Adi<br>><br>><br>
> Regards<br>><br>> Peter<br>><br>> Peter Newmarch<br>> Professional Land Surveyor<br>> 4Y GeoInformatics Pty Ltd<br>> Tel :<a href="tel:%2B27%2031%205642856" value="+27315642856" target="_blank">+27 31 5642856</a> <tel:%2B27%2031%205642856><br>
> Fax :<a href="tel:%2B27%2031%205643074" value="+27315643074" target="_blank">+27 31 5643074</a> <tel:%2B27%2031%205643074><br>> Mobile :<a href="tel:%2B27%2082%205705859" value="+27825705859" target="_blank">+27 82 5705859</a> <tel:%2B27%2082%205705859><br>
> eMail :<a href="mailto:newmarch@land-surveyors.com" target="_blank">newmarch@land-surveyors.com</a> <mailto:<a href="mailto:newmarch@land-surveyors.com" target="_blank">newmarch@land-surveyors.com</a>> <br>
><br>> On 23/03/2013 21:23, Chris wrote:<br>>> I wonder if any politicians are statisticians<br>>> and<br>>> IF any understand attributes and spatial statistics ? ( and forecasting )<br>
>><br>>> Could be a gold mine for someone with the necessary knowledge and skills<br>>><br>>><br>>> CM<br>>><br>>><br>>><br>>> On 23 Mar 2013 at 20:38, Adi Eyal wrote:<br>
>><br>>>> Thanks Tim<br>>> <br>>>> Yup - would you believe that the IEC publishes all their data<br>>>> in gobsmacking detail? Have a look here:<a href="http://www.elections.org.za/" target="_blank">http://www.elections.org.za</a>.<br>
>>> You'll find the results for all the elections that have taken place over<br>>>> the past two decades or so, down to the voting station. I got the<br>>>> shapefiles <a href="http://fromwww.demarcation.gov.za/" target="_blank">fromwww.demarcation.gov.za</a> <<a href="http://www.demarcation.gov.za/" target="_blank">http://www.demarcation.gov.za</a>>.<br>
>> <br>>>> Adi<br>>> <br>>>> On 23 March 2013 20:35, Tim Sutton<<a href="mailto:tim@linfiniti.com" target="_blank">tim@linfiniti.com</a>> <mailto:<a href="mailto:tim@linfiniti.com" target="_blank">tim@linfiniti.com</a>> wrote:<br>
>>><br>>>>> Hi Adi<br>>>>><br>>>>> On Sat, Mar 23, 2013 at 6:03 PM, Adi Eyal<<a href="mailto:adi@burgercom.co.za" target="_blank">adi@burgercom.co.za</a>> <mailto:<a href="mailto:adi@burgercom.co.za" target="_blank">adi@burgercom.co.za</a>> wrote:<br>
>>>>> Hi All<br>>>>>><br>>>>>> I've been fiddling around the election data from the last municipal<br>>>>>> elections and I've put together a graphic showing which wards were<br>
>>>> contested<br>>>>>> and which are strongholds. I defined contested as there being a less<br>>>>>> than 10% difference in vote counts between the first and second place<br>
>>>>> winners.<br>>>>>><br>>>>>> I'm by no means a cartographer and this is one of my first projects so<br>>>>>> I<br>>>>> was<br>
>>>>> hoping for comments about how one might improve the maps. I guess the<br>>>>>> one problem is that even though you know that a ward is contested, you<br>>>>>> don't know by how much. Also (and i'm not sure this is important) you<br>
>>>>> don't<br>>>>> know<br>>>>>> from the map what the individual wards are - only the municipality<br>>>>>> they<br>>>>> are<br>
>>>>> in. Finally, I don't know where most of these municipalities are<br>>>>> situated so<br>>>>>> perhaps so sort of contextual map showing them in relation to the rest<br>
>>>>> of the country might be useful. Of course all of these things are<br>>>>>> possible<br>>>>> but<br>>>>>> might not be easy to achieve while still maintaining an uncluttered<br>
>>>> design.<br>>>>>> Any advice would be appreciated. The small version of the image can be<br>>>>> found<br>>>>>> here:<a href="http://za.okfn.org/2013/03/23/battle-for-local-municipalities/" target="_blank">http://za.okfn.org/2013/03/23/battle-for-local-municipalities/</a>.<br>
>>>> The<br>>>>>> complete poster is also available as pdf linked to on the site.<br>>>>>><br>>>>>> Hopefully this sort of question is not frowned upon in this forum (if<br>
>>>>> it helps, everything here was produced with open source tools :)).<br>>>>>><br>>>>> Great project!<br>>>>><br>>>>> Is the source data you used available somewhere publicly? If so can you<br>
>>>> provide a link to it?<br>>>>><br>>>>> Regards<br>>>>><br>>>>> Tim<br>>>>><br>>>>><br>>>>>> Thanks<br>
>>>>> Adi<br>>>>>><br>>>>>> --<br>>>>>> Adi Eyal<br>>>>>> Data Specialist<br>>>>>> phone:<a href="tel:%2B27%2078%20014%202469" value="+27780142469" target="_blank">+27 78 014 2469</a> <tel:%2B27%2078%20014%202469><br>
>>>>> skype: adieyalcas<br>>>>>> linkedin:<a href="http://za.linkedin.com/pub/dir/Adi/Eyal" target="_blank">http://za.linkedin.com/pub/dir/Adi/Eyal</a><br>>>>>><br>>>>>><br>
>>>>> _______________________________________________<br>>>>>> Africa mailing list<br>>>>>> <a href="mailto:Africa@lists.osgeo.org" target="_blank">Africa@lists.osgeo.org</a> <mailto:<a href="mailto:Africa@lists.osgeo.org" target="_blank">Africa@lists.osgeo.org</a>><br>
>>>>> <a href="http://lists.osgeo.org/mailman/listinfo/africa" target="_blank">http://lists.osgeo.org/mailman/listinfo/africa</a><br>>>>>><br>>>>> --<br>>>>> Tim Sutton - QGIS Project Steering Committee Member (Release Manager)<br>
>>>> ============================================== Visit<br>>>>> <a href="http://linfiniti.com/" target="_blank">http://linfiniti.com</a> to find out about:<br>>>>> * QGIS programming services<br>
>>>> * GeoDjango web development<br>>>>> * FOSS Consulting Services<br>>>>> Skype: timlinux Irc: timlinux on #qgis <a href="http://atfreenode.net/" target="_blank">atfreenode.net</a> <<a href="http://freenode.net/" target="_blank">http://freenode.net</a>><br>
>>>> ==============================================<br>>>>> _______________________________________________<br>>>>> Africa mailing list<br>>>>> <a href="mailto:Africa@lists.osgeo.org" target="_blank">Africa@lists.osgeo.org</a> <mailto:<a href="mailto:Africa@lists.osgeo.org" target="_blank">Africa@lists.osgeo.org</a>><br>
>>>> <a href="http://lists.osgeo.org/mailman/listinfo/africa" target="_blank">http://lists.osgeo.org/mailman/listinfo/africa</a><br>>>>><br>>>> -- <br>>>> Adi Eyal<br>
>>> Data Specialist<br>>>> phone:<a href="tel:%2B27%2078%20014%202469" value="+27780142469" target="_blank">+27 78 014 2469</a> <tel:%2B27%2078%20014%202469><br>>>> skype: adieyalcas<br>
>>> linkedin:<a href="http://za.linkedin.com/pub/dir/Adi/Eyal" target="_blank">http://za.linkedin.com/pub/dir/Adi/Eyal</a><br>>>><br>>> _______________________________________________<br>>> Africa mailing list<br>
>> <a href="mailto:Africa@lists.osgeo.org" target="_blank">Africa@lists.osgeo.org</a> <mailto:<a href="mailto:Africa@lists.osgeo.org" target="_blank">Africa@lists.osgeo.org</a>><br>>> <a href="http://lists.osgeo.org/mailman/listinfo/africa" target="_blank">http://lists.osgeo.org/mailman/listinfo/africa</a><br>
>><br>>><br>><br>><br>> _______________________________________________<br>> Africa mailing list<br>> <a href="mailto:Africa@lists.osgeo.org" target="_blank">Africa@lists.osgeo.org</a> <mailto:<a href="mailto:Africa@lists.osgeo.org" target="_blank">Africa@lists.osgeo.org</a>><br>
> <a href="http://lists.osgeo.org/mailman/listinfo/africa" target="_blank">http://lists.osgeo.org/mailman/listinfo/africa</a><br>><br>><br>><br>><br>> -- <br>> Adi Eyal<br>> Data Specialist<br>
> phone: <a href="tel:%2B27%2078%20014%202469" value="+27780142469" target="_blank">+27 78 014 2469</a><br>> skype: adieyalcas<br>> linkedin: <a href="http://za.linkedin.com/pub/dir/Adi/Eyal" target="_blank">http://za.linkedin.com/pub/dir/Adi/Eyal</a><br>
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<br></blockquote></div><br><br clear="all"><div><br></div>-- <br>Adi Eyal<br>Data Specialist<br>phone: +27 78 014 2469<br>skype: adieyalcas<br>linkedin: <a href="http://za.linkedin.com/pub/dir/Adi/Eyal" target="_blank">http://za.linkedin.com/pub/dir/Adi/Eyal</a><br>
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