<html><head></head><body data-blackberry-caret-color="#00a8df" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); line-height: initial;"><div style="width: 100%; font-size: initial; font-family: Calibri, 'Slate Pro', sans-serif; color: rgb(31, 73, 125); text-align: initial; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Thank you</div> <div style="width: 100%; font-size: initial; font-family: Calibri, 'Slate Pro', sans-serif; color: rgb(31, 73, 125); text-align: initial; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br style="display:initial"></div> <div style="font-size: initial; font-family: Calibri, 'Slate Pro', sans-serif; color: rgb(31, 73, 125); text-align: initial; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Sent from my BlackBerry 10 smartphone.</div> <table width="100%" style="background-color:white;border-spacing:0px;"> <tbody><tr><td colspan="2" style="font-size: initial; text-align: initial; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"> <div id="_persistentHeader" style="border-style: solid none none; border-top-color: rgb(181, 196, 223); border-top-width: 1pt; padding: 3pt 0in 0in; font-family: Tahoma, 'BB Alpha Sans', 'Slate Pro'; font-size: 10pt;"> <div><b>From: </b>S Coetzer</div><div><b>Sent: </b>Tuesday 16 September 2014 10:08</div><div><b>To: </b>Africa local chapter discussions</div><div><b>Reply To: </b>Africa local chapter discussions</div><div><b>Subject: </b>Re: [OSGeo Africa] Formulas for probablilities</div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div style="border-style: solid none none; border-top-color: rgb(186, 188, 209); border-top-width: 1pt; font-size: initial; text-align: initial; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"></div><br><div id="_originalContent" style=""><div dir="ltr"><div><div><div><div>Hi Martin<br><br></div>Your formula is interesting. I would suggest get hold of a statistician before attempting mapping those results.<br><br></div>I can give you the email of a spatial statistician, Dr. Micheal Gebraslasie (KZN univ), drop him an email and see if he can help you out:<br><br></div><a href="mailto:mikot2004@yahoo.com">mikot2004@yahoo.com</a><br><br></div>We have both worked on Met-data for Malaria work. Am sure he can assist you.<br></div><div class="gmail_extra"><br clear="all"><div>Sarel Coetzer <br></div>
<br><div class="gmail_quote">On Tue, Sep 16, 2014 at 9:50 AM, mmchari . <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:martinmchari@gmail.com" target="_blank">martinmchari@gmail.com</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><div dir="ltr">Dear colleagues<div><br></div><div>I am trying to perform a vulnerability assessment using GIS for Nkonkobe Local Municipality in Eastern Cape Province, South Africa. The.The indicators to be used in assessment of exposure are:</div><div>Probability of extreme hot temperatures (A): Based on historical trends of maximum temperature data (1980 – 2013).</div><div>Probability (in %) of meteorological drought (B): Based on long term averages of rainfall data. </div><div><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif">Probability (in %) of extreme cold temperatures (C): This will be based on historical trends of minimum temperature data (1980 – 2013). </font></div><div><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif"><br></font></div><div><div><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif"> <span style="line-height:14.9499998092651px;text-align:justify">Therefore from the above indicators, exposure is calculated using field calculator from ArcGIS 10.1 as follows:</span></font></div><p style="text-align:justify"><i><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:18.3999996185303px;font-family:Cambria,serif"> Exposure = (A+B+C) / 3</span></i></p></div><div><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif"><span style="line-height:18.3999996185303px">Now about the formula for determining of these probabilities. How can I also get the probabilities in shapefile formats?</span></font></div><div><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif"><span style="line-height:18.3999996185303px"><br></span></font></div><div><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif">I would sincerely appreciate your assistance.</font></div><div><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif"><br></font></div><div><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif">Martin</font></div><div><font face="arial, helvetica, sans-serif"><br></font></div><p style="text-align:justify"><font face="Cambria, serif" size="3"><span style="line-height:18.3999996185303px"><i><br></i></span></font></p></div>
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