<div dir="auto"><div dir="auto"><font face="georgia, serif"><span style="font-size:14px;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)">The basic assumption:</span></font></div><span style="font-family:georgia,serif;font-size:14px;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><div dir="auto"><span style="font-family:georgia,serif;font-size:14px;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><br></span></div>"At whatever is the appropriate distance, the risk of infection is a function of being close to people who are infected. The most fundamental issue is thus, how close people are to one-another in their daily lives. The risk of infection can be expected to be higher where there are very high densities whether in residences, transport or employment locations."</span><div dir="auto"><font face="georgia, serif"><span style="font-size:14px"><br></span></font></div><div dir="auto"><font face="georgia, serif"><span style="font-size:14px">Citing Dr. Wendell Cox. </span></font></div><div dir="auto"><font face="georgia, serif"><span style="font-size:14px"><br></span></font></div><div dir="auto"><font face="georgia, serif"><span style="font-size:14px"><br></span></font><br><div data-smartmail="gmail_signature" dir="auto"><br><br><br>Sent with Android </div></div></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Wed, May 20, 2020, 12:10 G Tadonki <<a href="mailto:gtadonki@gmail.com">gtadonki@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><div dir="auto">You may read this... there are more detailed papers.<div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto"><a href="https://www.newgeography.com/content/006600-early-observations-pandemic-and-population-density" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">https://www.newgeography.com/content/006600-early-observations-pandemic-and-population-density</a> <br><br><div data-smartmail="gmail_signature" dir="auto"><br></div><div data-smartmail="gmail_signature" dir="auto">Prof Georges Tadonki<br><br>Sent with Android </div></div></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Wed, May 20, 2020, 11:20 Abraham Parbhunath <<a href="mailto:ParbhuA@eskom.co.za" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">ParbhuA@eskom.co.za</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div lang="EN-ZA" link="blue" vlink="purple">
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1f497d">Hi Immo. Try viewing the map on a desktop in full screen. The legend comes up. I think they correlate/infer vulnerability to density
of infection.<u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1f497d"><u></u> <u></u></span></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1f497d">Regards<u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1f497d">Abraham Parbhunath<u></u><u></u></span></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1f497d"><u></u> <u></u></span></p>
<div>
<div style="border:none;border-top:solid #e1e1e1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0cm 0cm 0cm">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">From:</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif"> Africa <<a href="mailto:africa-bounces@lists.osgeo.org" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">africa-bounces@lists.osgeo.org</a>>
<b>On Behalf Of </b>Immo Blecher<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, 20 May 2020 17:09<br>
<b>To:</b> <a href="mailto:africa@lists.osgeo.org" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">africa@lists.osgeo.org</a><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [OSGeo Africa] COVID-19 Geospatial Analysis<u></u><u></u></span></p>
</div>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p>
<p>Interesting map!!! Would be nice if they would provide a little bit of information with it on what the vulnerability actually is and what the points are (communities? suburbs/villages?), especially for the layman coming across the map.<u></u><u></u></p>
<p>Regards<u></u><u></u></p>
<p>Immo<u></u><u></u></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">On 2020/05/20 16:48, Abraham Parbhunath wrote:<u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<blockquote style="margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1f497d">I also think you are on to something, but as with everything it depends on what level of detail was captured by the authorities. Good
luck and we look forward to you sharing your results. Are you planning on integrating with a machine learning tool for forecasting?<br>
<br>
Incidentally, I am not sure if any of you have seen this map? </span><u></u><u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1f497d"> </span><u></u><u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1f497d"><a href="https://circlecityinfo.co.za/covid-19-map/" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">https://circlecityinfo.co.za/covid-19-map/</a></span><u></u><u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1f497d"> </span><u></u><u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1f497d">Regards</span><u></u><u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1f497d">Abraham Parbhunath</span><u></u><u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1f497d"> </span><u></u><u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">From:</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif"> Africa
<a href="mailto:africa-bounces@lists.osgeo.org" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank"><africa-bounces@lists.osgeo.org></a>
<b>On Behalf Of </b>G Tadonki<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, 20 May 2020 16:08<br>
<b>To:</b> Africa local chapter discussions <a href="mailto:africa@lists.osgeo.org" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">
<africa@lists.osgeo.org></a><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [OSGeo Africa] COVID-19 Geospatial Analysis</span><u></u><u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <u></u><u></u></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Hi,<u></u><u></u></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">It is definitely useful, and many teams are doing it right now in a few countries. The COVID-19 crisis has taken the demand and use of geospatial data to an unprecedented level in epidemiology, the management of health emergencies and governance.
In fact, there is no choice, it is a matter of life and death. However, it is key that research is carried out by professionals, in a collaborative and multidisciplinary way. It must also be linked decision-making by the government and partners. <u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">SA and African countries must seize the opportunities offered by this trend. <u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Stay safe,<u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt"> <u></u><u></u></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Prof Georges Tadonki<br>
<br>
<br>
Sent with Android <u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <u></u><u></u></p>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">On Wed, May 20, 2020, 06:13 Kevin Musungu <<a href="mailto:kevin.musungu@gmail.com" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">kevin.musungu@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<blockquote style="border:none;border-left:solid #cccccc 1.0pt;padding:0cm 0cm 0cm 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:5.0pt">
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">Hi Madodomzi,</span><u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"> </span><u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">Such data is certainly useful. With sufficient data one can model spatial growth with time. I think it may give an insight into areas that are most vulnerable to pandemics especially when included
with other data like population density, housing types, proximity to health facilities, sanitation, demographics etc. A lot of it is common sense but mapping it in a GIS environment with multicriteria assessment can give alot of insight into spatial vulnerability.
The difficulty is usually in collating the discrete datasets because they are often held by different organisations but it certainly isn't futile. </span><u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"> </span><u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">Kind regards</span><u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">Kevin</span><u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <u></u><u></u></p>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">On Tue, May 19, 2020 at 11:48 AM Stephen Wiggins <<a href="mailto:wiggins.stephen@gmail.com" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">wiggins.stephen@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<blockquote style="border:none;border-left:solid #cccccc 1.0pt;padding:0cm 0cm 0cm 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:5.0pt">
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">I think it would definitely help. Not a futile exercise at all.<u></u><u></u></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Provide assistance with understanding why certain areas are hotspots and other not, whereby reducing and preventing hotspots from occurring in these vulnerable areas in the future.<u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Kind Regards<u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <u></u><u></u></p>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">On Tue, May 19, 2020 at 11:24 AM Samantha Goodchild-Brown <<a href="mailto:Samantha.Goodchild-Brown@capetown.gov.za" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">Samantha.Goodchild-Brown@capetown.gov.za</a>> wrote:<u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<blockquote style="border:none;border-left:solid #cccccc 1.0pt;padding:0cm 0cm 0cm 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:5.0pt">
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1f497d">At a guess, no, it wouldn’t help. Not without vectors and reasons of travel factored in.</span><u></u><u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1f497d">But that’s why we do research….</span><u></u><u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1f497d"> </span><u></u><u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif">From:</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif"> Africa
<<a href="mailto:africa-bounces@lists.osgeo.org" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">africa-bounces@lists.osgeo.org</a>>
<b>On Behalf Of </b>Madodomzi Mafanya<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Saturday, 16 May 2020 18:15<br>
<b>To:</b> <a href="mailto:africa@lists.osgeo.org" rel="noreferrer noreferrer" target="_blank">africa@lists.osgeo.org</a><br>
<b>Subject:</b> [OSGeo Africa] COVID-19 Geospatial Analysis</span><u></u><u></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <u></u><u></u></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Dear List,<u></u><u></u></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Could the analysis of existing time and place COVID-19 data help us understand spatiotemporal tendencies of pandemics and help us to simulate spatial spreads of future viral outbreaks?<u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Would this help with readiness or preparedness for future outbreaks or just a futile exercise?<u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Regards,<u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Madodomzi Mafanya (CGPrGISc 0279)<u></u><u></u></p>
</div>
</div>
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<p class="MsoNormal">-- <u></u><u></u></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Regards, <br>
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