[OSGeo Africa] Formulas for probablilities

[S Coetzer]

Hi Martin

Your formula is interesting. I would suggest get hold of a statistician
before attempting mapping those results.

I can give you the email of a spatial statistician, Dr. Micheal Gebraslasie
(KZN univ), drop him an email and see if he can help you out:

mikot2004 at yahoo.com

We have both worked on Met-data for Malaria work. Am sure he can assist you.

Sarel Coetzer

On Tue, Sep 16, 2014 at 9:50 AM, mmchari . <martinmchari at gmail.com> wrote:

> Dear colleagues
>
> I am trying to perform a vulnerability assessment using GIS for Nkonkobe
> Local Municipality in Eastern Cape Province, South Africa. The.The
> indicators to be used in assessment of exposure are:
> Probability of extreme hot temperatures (A): Based on historical trends of
> maximum temperature data (1980 – 2013).
> Probability (in %) of meteorological drought (B): Based on long term
> averages of rainfall data.
> Probability (in %) of extreme cold temperatures (C): This will be based on
> historical trends of minimum temperature data (1980 – 2013).
>
>   Therefore from the above indicators, exposure is calculated using field
> calculator from ArcGIS 10.1 as follows:
>
> *                                    Exposure = (A+B+C) / 3*
> Now about the formula for determining of  these probabilities. How can I
> also get the probabilities in shapefile formats?
>
> I would sincerely appreciate your assistance.
>
> Martin
>
>
>
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