[OSGeo-Conf] added risk analysis for FOSS4G in budget plannings

[till.adams at fossgis.de]

Steven,

I talked to Jeff some month ago abot that. We have to clear up the 
finance office before getting in business. In the moment we can backup 
with FOSSGIs money, but you are right - there are some things need to be 
fixed quickly ;-)

Regards, Till


Am 2015-08-25 18:48, schrieb Steven Feldman:
> Till
>
> Presumably you will need an advance to pay deposits, is that included
> in these figures?
>
>  ______
> Steven
>
>> On 25 Aug 2015, at 14:15, till.adams at fossgis.de [1] wrote:
>>
>> Dear Conference Committee,
>>
>> as promised, I've done a rough estimation about our pre-conference
>> costs to be payed in advance in case of a complete cancellation.
>>
>> For those interested in the real numbers, I uploaded a new folder in
>> foss4g-2016's SVN called "budgetp_planning" with an updated budget
>> planning sheet derived from our proposal. The costs there are not
>> full updated yet, but the big cost factors are up-to-date.
>> At the end I added a section "risk analysis" (from line 123 on)
>> where I listed the big cost-factors and what the contractor will
>> charge in case of full cancellation (e.g. conference center,
>> caterer, PCO, ship charter and ship catering for the gala event,
>> band). I also added an amount of 20k for "incalculables", which is
>> just an estimation from me and not based on anything.
>>
>> Then I calcualted the percentages we have to pay for the scenario
>> full cancel 6, 3, 2, 1 month before the event. The numbers are
>> amazing, I'd like to have the "1 month before event" on my personal
>> bank account ;-).
>> All this, I've calcualted with a summed up VAT of 13%, as I am quite
>> sure, that we'll get some of the bigger costs down to the 7% VAT, as
>> lined out in our proposal. So I took the normal 19% and the reduced
>> 7% together and divided by 2.
>>
>> In short, these are the gross numbers:
>> cancel 6 month before event: 62.000 €
>> cancel 3 month before event: 81.500 €
>> cancel 2 month before event: 104.000 €
>> cancel 1 month before event: 354.000 €
>>
>> As said, these are worse scenarios, especially under the assumption,
>> that we really have to pay 100% for conference center - I did not
>> debate this, as my contact there is on holidays, but that's what
>> their general terms and conditions say.
>>
>> I did only perform a quick risk analysis based on less attendees
>> than the lined out 685 as the actual break even point. Everybody may
>> do this just by taking our sheet and play with the numbers of
>> attendees.
>>
>> My first fixed perception from these numbers is:
>> We can't cancel the event 1 month before. In case of this, we'd have
>> to take the risk, that we'll have less attendees than expected. If
>> we get at least 300 attendees, we'll have the same loss, than we'd
>> have in case of full cancellation 2 month before.
>> FYI: For FOSSGIS conferences we had >500 attendees in 2014 and 460
>> in 2015...
>>
>> Taking all this into account, Bonn's LOC would like to have a
>> liablility from OSGeo for 100.000 € or, in case of a less
>> guaranteered amount, we'll have to find other ways (insurance) to
>> assure us (= our local chapter FOSSGIS e.V.). In return, we of
>> course offer to transfer the bulk of the net return after all costs
>> to OSGeo - this also because we see and know, that FOSS4G is an
>> OSGeo event and the major income source for OSGeo.
>>
>> Reagarding the newest discussion on the conference list, we are most
>> "option 3", especially because all work done by LOC is voluntary
>> work.
>> Further details to be discussed.
>>
>> Regards, Till
>>
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>
>
>
> Links:
> ------
> [1] mailto:till.adams at fossgis.de
> [2] mailto:Conference_dev at lists.osgeo.org