[FOSS4G2016] [OSGeo-Conf] added risk analysis for FOSS4G in budget plannings

Mon Aug 31 01:34:00 PDT 2015

Marc,

I agree with the "yes/no" - in my risk analysis came out, that - based 
on the actual calculation, a conference with 300 people would cause a 
loss of 100k. That's the same, as cancellation two month in advance. So 
in any way, a smaller conference is better than none.

But.
Your idea only regardng the key-consts is wuite well, but in my risk 
analysis I already did this more or less. I regarded mostly the big 
points and added a variable "20%" for all other costs. The point is, 
there is no much variability.

For instance: It doen't matter we find a "sponsor" for catering, we'll 
have to sign contracts with the caterer quiet early, so it's difficult 
to keep that out - regardless, who is paying in the end.

Of course we might save T-Shirts, USB-sticks, reduce number of 
volunteers, and so on and so on. But that's not the big costs.

All togehter I am quite sure, that we need a backup for 100k - 
regardless where from.

Till

Am 2015-08-31 10:26, schrieb Marc Zakelijk:
> Till, Cameron,
> Regarding the delegate-food-provision; you could make this a variable
> cost item in the budget by having it sponsored per day by different
> organisations?!
>
> Actually, I would recommend a type of worst case scenario budgeting;
> - trim down the budget to the minimum cost (and thus exposure) level,
> including the option of cutting 1 day off, by isolating all
> nice-to-have-items. In financial terms; make as much cost items as
> variable as possible (even those that always have seemed fixed due to
> earlier expectations)
> - list these - now - additional programme items separately and add
> them only to the definite programme once the costs involved are
> covered by a monetary/materials/other sponsor, extra increment of
> attendees or co-organiser...(a MoSCoW priority in advance required 
> and
> agreed upon)
>
> Personally, I would rather have a smaller Conference than none at
> all. At present it could become too much a matter of 'all or 
> nothing'.
>
> Vriendelijke groet,
> Marc Vloemans
>
>
>> Op 30 aug. 2015 om 22:13 heeft Cameron Shorter 
>> <cameron.shorter at gmail.com> het volgende geschreven:
>>
>> Hi Till,
>> One more thing. You will have people register early. In particular, 
>> you will have many people register by the early bird deadline.
>>
>> At the a certain point, probably the early bird deadline you should 
>> commit to cancelling or not. (This is what we did with FOSS4G 2009).
>>
>> We noted that our maximum exposure was ~ $65,000 at early bird, if 
>> no one else registered, and if we cut key costs. (You might remember 
>> that delegates didn't get a shirt that year. We were also seriously 
>> considering not paying for delegates' food during the conference.).
>>
>> So you should be able to say:
>>
>> At early bird, if we don't get XXX registrations, we will cancel.
>> If we only get XXX registrations, we potentially will expose OSGeo 
>> to $YYY (and we will have a no frills conference without zzz)
>>
>> Cheers, Cameron
>>
>>
>>> On 25/08/2015 11:15 pm, till.adams at fossgis.de wrote:
>>> Dear Conference Committee,
>>>
>>> as promised, I've done a rough estimation about our pre-conference 
>>> costs to be payed in advance in case of a complete cancellation.
>>>
>>> For those interested in the real numbers, I uploaded a new folder 
>>> in foss4g-2016's SVN called "budgetp_planning" with an updated budget 
>>> planning sheet derived from our proposal. The costs there are not 
>>> full updated yet, but the big cost factors are up-to-date.
>>> At the end I added a section "risk analysis" (from line 123 on) 
>>> where I listed the big cost-factors and what the contractor will 
>>> charge in case of full cancellation (e.g. conference center, caterer, 
>>> PCO, ship charter and ship catering for the gala event, band). I also 
>>> added an amount of 20k for "incalculables", which is just an 
>>> estimation from me and not based on anything.
>>>
>>> Then I calcualted the percentages we have to pay for the scenario 
>>> full cancel 6, 3, 2, 1 month before the event. The numbers are 
>>> amazing, I'd like to have the "1 month before event" on my personal 
>>> bank account ;-).
>>> All this, I've calcualted with a summed up VAT of 13%, as I am 
>>> quite sure, that we'll get some of the bigger costs down to the 7% 
>>> VAT, as lined out in our proposal. So I took the normal 19% and the 
>>> reduced 7% together and divided by 2.
>>>
>>> In short, these are the gross numbers:
>>> cancel 6 month before event:  62.000 €
>>> cancel 3 month before event:  81.500 €
>>> cancel 2 month before event: 104.000 €
>>> cancel 1 month before event: 354.000 €
>>>
>>> As said, these are worse scenarios, especially under the 
>>> assumption, that we really have to pay 100% for conference center - I 
>>> did not debate this, as my contact there is on holidays, but that's 
>>> what their general terms and conditions say.
>>>
>>>
>>> I did only perform a quick risk analysis based on less attendees 
>>> than the lined out 685 as the actual break even point. Everybody may 
>>> do this just by taking our sheet and play with the numbers of 
>>> attendees.
>>>
>>> My first fixed perception from these numbers is:
>>> We can't cancel the event 1 month before. In case of this, we'd 
>>> have to take the risk, that we'll have less attendees than expected. 
>>> If we get at least 300 attendees, we'll have the same loss, than we'd 
>>> have in case of full cancellation 2 month before.
>>> FYI: For FOSSGIS conferences we had >500 attendees in 2014 and 460 
>>> in 2015...
>>>
>>>
>>> Taking all this into account, Bonn's LOC would like to have a 
>>> liablility from OSGeo for 100.000 € or, in case of a less 
>>> guaranteered amount, we'll have to find other ways (insurance) to 
>>> assure us (= our local chapter FOSSGIS e.V.). In return, we of course 
>>> offer to transfer the bulk of the net return after all costs to OSGeo 
>>> - this also because we see and know, that FOSS4G is an OSGeo event 
>>> and the major income source for OSGeo.
>>>
>>> Reagarding the newest discussion on the conference list, we are 
>>> most "option 3", especially because all work done by LOC is voluntary 
>>> work.
>>> Further details to be discussed.
>>>
>>>
>>> Regards, Till
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> _______________________________________________
>>> Conference_dev mailing list
>>> Conference_dev at lists.osgeo.org
>>> http://lists.osgeo.org/mailman/listinfo/conference_dev
>>
>> --
>> Cameron Shorter,
>> Software and Data Solutions Manager
>> LISAsoft
>> Suite 112, Jones Bay Wharf,
>> 26 - 32 Pirrama Rd, Pyrmont NSW 2009
>>
>> P +61 2 9009 5000,  W www.lisasoft.com,  F +61 2 9009 5099
>>
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