[FOSS4G2016] [OSGeo-Conf] added risk analysis for FOSS4G in budget plannings

Mon Aug 31 02:47:38 PDT 2015

Ok,
Then the 100K seed plus from OSGeo should suffice. 

Vriendelijke groet,
Marc Vloemans

> Op 31 aug. 2015 om 10:34 heeft till.adams at fossgis.de het volgende geschreven:
> 
> Marc,
> 
> I agree with the "yes/no" - in my risk analysis came out, that - based on the actual calculation, a conference with 300 people would cause a loss of 100k. That's the same, as cancellation two month in advance. So in any way, a smaller conference is better than none.
> 
> But.
> Your idea only regardng the key-consts is wuite well, but in my risk analysis I already did this more or less. I regarded mostly the big points and added a variable "20%" for all other costs. The point is, there is no much variability.
> 
> For instance: It doen't matter we find a "sponsor" for catering, we'll have to sign contracts with the caterer quiet early, so it's difficult to keep that out - regardless, who is paying in the end.
> 
> Of course we might save T-Shirts, USB-sticks, reduce number of volunteers, and so on and so on. But that's not the big costs.
> 
> All togehter I am quite sure, that we need a backup for 100k - regardless where from.
> 
> Till
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Am 2015-08-31 10:26, schrieb Marc Zakelijk:
>> Till, Cameron,
>> Regarding the delegate-food-provision; you could make this a variable
>> cost item in the budget by having it sponsored per day by different
>> organisations?!
>> 
>> Actually, I would recommend a type of worst case scenario budgeting;
>> - trim down the budget to the minimum cost (and thus exposure) level,
>> including the option of cutting 1 day off, by isolating all
>> nice-to-have-items. In financial terms; make as much cost items as
>> variable as possible (even those that always have seemed fixed due to
>> earlier expectations)
>> - list these - now - additional programme items separately and add
>> them only to the definite programme once the costs involved are
>> covered by a monetary/materials/other sponsor, extra increment of
>> attendees or co-organiser...(a MoSCoW priority in advance required and
>> agreed upon)
>> 
>> Personally, I would rather have a smaller Conference than none at
>> all. At present it could become too much a matter of 'all or nothing'.
>> 
>> Vriendelijke groet,
>> Marc Vloemans
>> 
>> 
>>> Op 30 aug. 2015 om 22:13 heeft Cameron Shorter <cameron.shorter at gmail.com> het volgende geschreven:
>>> 
>>> Hi Till,
>>> One more thing. You will have people register early. In particular, you will have many people register by the early bird deadline.
>>> 
>>> At the a certain point, probably the early bird deadline you should commit to cancelling or not. (This is what we did with FOSS4G 2009).
>>> 
>>> We noted that our maximum exposure was ~ $65,000 at early bird, if no one else registered, and if we cut key costs. (You might remember that delegates didn't get a shirt that year. We were also seriously considering not paying for delegates' food during the conference.).
>>> 
>>> So you should be able to say:
>>> 
>>> At early bird, if we don't get XXX registrations, we will cancel.
>>> If we only get XXX registrations, we potentially will expose OSGeo to $YYY (and we will have a no frills conference without zzz)
>>> 
>>> Cheers, Cameron
>>> 
>>> 
>>>> On 25/08/2015 11:15 pm, till.adams at fossgis.de wrote:
>>>> Dear Conference Committee,
>>>> 
>>>> as promised, I've done a rough estimation about our pre-conference costs to be payed in advance in case of a complete cancellation.
>>>> 
>>>> For those interested in the real numbers, I uploaded a new folder in foss4g-2016's SVN called "budgetp_planning" with an updated budget planning sheet derived from our proposal. The costs there are not full updated yet, but the big cost factors are up-to-date.
>>>> At the end I added a section "risk analysis" (from line 123 on) where I listed the big cost-factors and what the contractor will charge in case of full cancellation (e.g. conference center, caterer, PCO, ship charter and ship catering for the gala event, band). I also added an amount of 20k for "incalculables", which is just an estimation from me and not based on anything.
>>>> 
>>>> Then I calcualted the percentages we have to pay for the scenario full cancel 6, 3, 2, 1 month before the event. The numbers are amazing, I'd like to have the "1 month before event" on my personal bank account ;-).
>>>> All this, I've calcualted with a summed up VAT of 13%, as I am quite sure, that we'll get some of the bigger costs down to the 7% VAT, as lined out in our proposal. So I took the normal 19% and the reduced 7% together and divided by 2.
>>>> 
>>>> In short, these are the gross numbers:
>>>> cancel 6 month before event:  62.000 €
>>>> cancel 3 month before event:  81.500 €
>>>> cancel 2 month before event: 104.000 €
>>>> cancel 1 month before event: 354.000 €
>>>> 
>>>> As said, these are worse scenarios, especially under the assumption, that we really have to pay 100% for conference center - I did not debate this, as my contact there is on holidays, but that's what their general terms and conditions say.
>>>> 
>>>> 
>>>> I did only perform a quick risk analysis based on less attendees than the lined out 685 as the actual break even point. Everybody may do this just by taking our sheet and play with the numbers of attendees.
>>>> 
>>>> My first fixed perception from these numbers is:
>>>> We can't cancel the event 1 month before. In case of this, we'd have to take the risk, that we'll have less attendees than expected. If we get at least 300 attendees, we'll have the same loss, than we'd have in case of full cancellation 2 month before.
>>>> FYI: For FOSSGIS conferences we had >500 attendees in 2014 and 460 in 2015...
>>>> 
>>>> 
>>>> Taking all this into account, Bonn's LOC would like to have a liablility from OSGeo for 100.000 € or, in case of a less guaranteered amount, we'll have to find other ways (insurance) to assure us (= our local chapter FOSSGIS e.V.). In return, we of course offer to transfer the bulk of the net return after all costs to OSGeo - this also because we see and know, that FOSS4G is an OSGeo event and the major income source for OSGeo.
>>>> 
>>>> Reagarding the newest discussion on the conference list, we are most "option 3", especially because all work done by LOC is voluntary work.
>>>> Further details to be discussed.
>>>> 
>>>> 
>>>> Regards, Till
>>>> 
>>>> 
>>>> 
>>>> _______________________________________________
>>>> Conference_dev mailing list
>>>> Conference_dev at lists.osgeo.org
>>>> http://lists.osgeo.org/mailman/listinfo/conference_dev
>>> 
>>> --
>>> Cameron Shorter,
>>> Software and Data Solutions Manager
>>> LISAsoft
>>> Suite 112, Jones Bay Wharf,
>>> 26 - 32 Pirrama Rd, Pyrmont NSW 2009
>>> 
>>> P +61 2 9009 5000,  W www.lisasoft.com,  F +61 2 9009 5099
>>> 
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>>> FOSS4G2016 at lists.osgeo.org
>>> http://lists.osgeo.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/foss4g2016
>> 
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