[FOSS4G2016] [OSGeo-Conf] added risk analysis for FOSS4G in budget plannings

[till.adams at fossgis.de]

Hi Cameron,

regarding my risk analysis, this would mean to plan a possible 
cancelation 3 month before the event, because 2 month before, we already 
will have costs of 100k - the same as running the conference with 300 
attendees. Im general I'd prefer not to talk about "full cancellation", 
but more about "what happens if less than xxx people come". I am 
absolutely convinced, that this only happens, if something unforeseeable 
happens, but you never now. The thing with early bird is, that I think 
that our community works different. Many people tend to register late. 
To improve the earl-bird-deal also means, that we have less income ;-)

In my eyes the most important thing is, that we get as many sponsors 
right early as possible. In the actual calculation, I only calculate 
with 40k sponsorship, that's the point where we can start earning money 
soon and also saving up our costs.

Anyway, thanks for your thoughts,

Till


Am 2015-08-30 22:13, schrieb Cameron Shorter:
> Hi Till,
> One more thing. You will have people register early. In particular,
> you will have many people register by the early bird deadline.
>
> At the a certain point, probably the early bird deadline you should
> commit to cancelling or not. (This is what we did with FOSS4G 2009).
>
> We noted that our maximum exposure was ~ $65,000 at early bird, if no
> one else registered, and if we cut key costs. (You might remember 
> that
> delegates didn't get a shirt that year. We were also seriously
> considering not paying for delegates' food during the conference.).
>
> So you should be able to say:
>
> At early bird, if we don't get XXX registrations, we will cancel.
> If we only get XXX registrations, we potentially will expose OSGeo to
> $YYY (and we will have a no frills conference without zzz)
>
> Cheers, Cameron
>
>
> On 25/08/2015 11:15 pm, till.adams at fossgis.de wrote:
>> Dear Conference Committee,
>>
>> as promised, I've done a rough estimation about our pre-conference 
>> costs to be payed in advance in case of a complete cancellation.
>>
>> For those interested in the real numbers, I uploaded a new folder in 
>> foss4g-2016's SVN called "budgetp_planning" with an updated budget 
>> planning sheet derived from our proposal. The costs there are not full 
>> updated yet, but the big cost factors are up-to-date.
>> At the end I added a section "risk analysis" (from line 123 on) 
>> where I listed the big cost-factors and what the contractor will 
>> charge in case of full cancellation (e.g. conference center, caterer, 
>> PCO, ship charter and ship catering for the gala event, band). I also 
>> added an amount of 20k for "incalculables", which is just an 
>> estimation from me and not based on anything.
>>
>> Then I calcualted the percentages we have to pay for the scenario 
>> full cancel 6, 3, 2, 1 month before the event. The numbers are 
>> amazing, I'd like to have the "1 month before event" on my personal 
>> bank account ;-).
>> All this, I've calcualted with a summed up VAT of 13%, as I am quite 
>> sure, that we'll get some of the bigger costs down to the 7% VAT, as 
>> lined out in our proposal. So I took the normal 19% and the reduced 7% 
>> together and divided by 2.
>>
>> In short, these are the gross numbers:
>> cancel 6 month before event:  62.000 €
>> cancel 3 month before event:  81.500 €
>> cancel 2 month before event: 104.000 €
>> cancel 1 month before event: 354.000 €
>>
>> As said, these are worse scenarios, especially under the assumption, 
>> that we really have to pay 100% for conference center - I did not 
>> debate this, as my contact there is on holidays, but that's what their 
>> general terms and conditions say.
>>
>>
>> I did only perform a quick risk analysis based on less attendees 
>> than the lined out 685 as the actual break even point. Everybody may 
>> do this just by taking our sheet and play with the numbers of 
>> attendees.
>>
>> My first fixed perception from these numbers is:
>> We can't cancel the event 1 month before. In case of this, we'd have 
>> to take the risk, that we'll have less attendees than expected. If we 
>> get at least 300 attendees, we'll have the same loss, than we'd have 
>> in case of full cancellation 2 month before.
>> FYI: For FOSSGIS conferences we had >500 attendees in 2014 and 460 
>> in 2015...
>>
>>
>> Taking all this into account, Bonn's LOC would like to have a 
>> liablility from OSGeo for 100.000 € or, in case of a less guaranteered 
>> amount, we'll have to find other ways (insurance) to assure us (= our 
>> local chapter FOSSGIS e.V.). In return, we of course offer to transfer 
>> the bulk of the net return after all costs to OSGeo - this also 
>> because we see and know, that FOSS4G is an OSGeo event and the major 
>> income source for OSGeo.
>>
>> Reagarding the newest discussion on the conference list, we are most 
>> "option 3", especially because all work done by LOC is voluntary work.
>> Further details to be discussed.
>>
>>
>> Regards, Till
>>
>>
>>
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