[GRASS-web] Futures - Application possibilities

[Anna Petrášová]

Hi Tom,

the historical landuse data are used basically in 3 places. First,
r.futures.demand requires those together with historical population and
population projections to create a file telling the patch growing algorithm
(in r.futures.pga) how many pixels to flip from non-urban to urban each
step of the simulation. If you are able to provide that information without
historical data, that's fine. For example, if you know how large the future
city is planned to be, then just provide the number of pixels each step.
Second, historical land use is used for deriving probability of urban
growth for each pixel. A statistical model (r.futures.potential) derives
the probability based on various predictors (e.g. slope, distance to water,
road density, or whatever else is relevant) based on which pixels were
developed between the past and current situation. It sounds like you could
use the current state as past and the projected final map as current state
and derive the development potential from there.
Third, it's used for calibration patch size and shape. You could test
different urban patch compactness parameters and sizes as part of various
scenarios.

Hope that helps, I would suggest to move the conversation to grass users
mailing list (you need to subscribe), the grass-web mailing list is meant
for different content.

Anna

On Tue, Nov 10, 2020 at 5:11 PM Tom Hackbarth <txhackbarth at gmail.com> wrote:

> Dear Sir or Madam,
>
> I'm Tom from the Technical University of Munich and I am looking for a way
> to model the land use / land cover changes occurring with cities built from
> scratch for my Master's thesis. For this reason, I obviously do not have
> any historical maps. Just the map of the current state in the region, and
> the master plan of the city (which I could compose a second land use map of
> with). I am now looking for a simulator that is capable of modelling future
> urban growth and its resulting land use changes of the planned city,
> without having any maps of past developments.
>
> I have found GRASS and especially the FUTURES tool to be an adequate
> grounding for my research question. Unfortunately here also, a historical
> background of urban development and land use changes is necessary.
>
> This is why I wanted to make sure whether there are any possibilities to
> use FUTURES with just the current and the projected final map or master
> plan of a region. Or whether there are any other tools that I can use
> within GRASS that fit my problem.
>
> I am very grateful for any advice you can give me.
>
> Thank you in advance.
>
> Best regards
>
> Tom Hackbarth
> _______________________________________________
> grass-web mailing list
> grass-web at lists.osgeo.org
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